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April 21 Natural Gas Analytics Community Conversation - "Predicting Gas Burn for AES Power Legacy Ou
Apr 21, 2021 from 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM (CT)
Natural Gas Analytics Community
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
11:00 AM CT
for a presentation with Q&A and open discussion, on "
Predicting Gas Burn for AES Power Legacy Out-of-Merit Gas Generators
Andres Figuerola, Data Scientist
Erin Boyd, Global Director of Commercial and CX AI/ML
In this discussion, Andres Figuerola and Erin Boyd will present on analytics deployed to support the operations of legacy natural gas assets in the California Wholesale market. Specifically, generators in the California market are dispatched according to a least-cost solution in which participants submit bids to provide a given quantity of energy at a specified price. While an oversimplification, awards to generate are based on an economic ordering of cost and dispatched from lowest cost to higher costs until all demand is satisfied. However, the market operator can also dispatch units based on non-economic reasons, including reliability, with AES’s legacy assets falling into this category. These assets would otherwise not win an award based on cost for most hours within the year. The non-economic dispatch of these assets makes the procurement of gas to generate more difficult and uncertain as reliability can be difficult to predict based on fundamentals. Algorithms to thus predict whether these units would be called on for the following day were developed along with a prediction of the gas burn if called on. This presentation will provide an overview of this work, including supporting inputs, challenges, and next steps.
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A Microsoft Teams link will be provided to Natural Gas Analytics Community members prior to the meeting.
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